Basketball Flat Sports and Road Trip Dynamics |
| Date Added: January 23, 2008 07:21:36 PM |
| Author: Jim Feist |
| Category: Sports: Basketball: College and University |
| It's time! Time for college basketball teams to begin conference play, that is, also known as time for separating the contenders from the pretenders. It's important to closely examine the schedule of college hoop teams. Some teams start off playing a bunch of cream puffs, while others have a mixture of good and bad teams. All of that leads to the start of the New Year when conference play begins. Since conferences are purposely made up of schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams start the season and what their schedule has been like. Some schools want to get a few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their win/loss record, while others want to test their teams early to toughen them up for conference play. You may recall Clemson last season starting 17-0, but it was as unimpressive a 17-0 start as one could imagine wlth a very easy schedule. The Tigers complained they weren't getting respect, but as soon as conference play started,Clemson got more respect than it deserved, losing 9 of 11 games. The overrated Tigers were 4-8 against the number during that stretch, so much for my college basketball picks of the day though! That was nothing new either, as the previous season Clemson started 2-7-1 against the number in ACC play. Early season scheduling against good competition can toughen up teams for conference P ~ RVem ember the sensational season George Mason had two years ago getting to the Final Four? The Parrmots early season nonconference schedule was challenging with road games at Wake Forest, Creighton, Manhattan, Old Dominion, and Mississippi State. Once Colonial Athletic Association play started, GeoPqe Flason went on a tear at 15-2,1 0-6-1A TS. Playing against tough competition clearly made conference play easier. It can work the other way too. A few years ago Virginia opened the year 10-0, topping 100 points three times. A closer look, however, found some of their wins were against Brooklyn, VMI. Coastsl Carolina, Bucknell and Dartmouth - not exactly a murderer's row of hoop talent! Virginia may have fattened their win totals, but their hot start may have gone to the players' heads, as well. The Cavaliers proceeded to go 0-4-1 ATS once conference play began, including a home loss to NC State as a 9-point favorite and a 103-61 loss to Duke. The Cavaliers weren't quite ready for prime time. That same season the same ppened to another ACC team, Wake Forest. Wake started 8-0-1 ATS with wins over St. Mary's, Alr rorce, Richmond, South Carolma state, Radford and Navy. It wasn't long before ACC play began and the Demon Deacons ripped off another remarkable spread stretch - a 0-10-1 ATS run! Some coaches have a history of scheduling tough opponents, while others can pad their wins and losses with cupcakes, giving the appearance of being a great team. A few years ago, tiny Ball State started with a 7-4 record and an unimpressive 4-3 ATS mark, yet the team was highly ranked in the national polls as was their RPI rating (ratings percentage index) Why? Ball State played a tough nonconference schedule, even shaking the basketball world. Ball State beat Kansas 93-91 as a +15 dog, smashed UCLA 91-73 as +9 dog, then lost to #1 Duke 83-71 as a +13 dog. That 3-0 ATS start tuned a lot of heads, and Ball State went on to play competitive games against lndiana and Oklahoma State So don't focus strictly on wins and losses thus far, but pay more attention to strength of schedule and RPI rankings. A 10-0 team isn't necessarily a strong club, because teams that are battle-tested early can have an edge once conference play starts, while the pretenders will wilt faster than a snowball in the Spring thaw, which is just around the corner. |
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